yields

the yield curve is not a crystal ball. it is a mirror. it shows you what the bond market has already agreed to be afraid of.

central banks have two speeds: too slow and too fast. we are currently at "too slow." it will pivot to "too fast" without warning and then a lot of people will be very upset.

the fed funds rate isn't a light switch. it's a slow dimmer with a 6-month delay and a broken bulb. that's the technical explanation. this tweet is not investment advice.

10y up 4bps on the day. this is fine. everything is fine. i am fine. please stop asking.

if you understand duration risk, you understand 80% of fixed income. if you don't, please stop tweeting about the fed.